'''DEFINITION'''

The OMI_EXTREME_WAVE_BALTIC_swh_mean_and_anomaly_obs indicator is based on the computation of the 99th and the 1st percentiles from in situ data (observations). It is computed for the variable significant wave height (swh) measured by in situ buoys. The use of percentiles instead of annual maximum and minimum values, makes this extremes study less affected by individual data measurement errors. The percentiles are temporally averaged, and the spatial evolution is displayed, jointly with the anomaly in the target year. This study of extreme variability was first applied to sea level variable (Pérez Gómez et al 2016) and then extended to other essential variables, sea surface temperature and significant wave height (Pérez Gómez et al 2018).

'''CONTEXT'''

Projections on Climate Change foresee a future with a greater frequency of extreme sea states (Stott, 2016; Mitchell, 2006). The damages caused by severe wave storms can be considerable not only in infrastructure and buildings but also in the natural habitat, crops and ecosystems affected by erosion and flooding aggravated by the extreme wave heights. In addition, wave storms strongly hamper the maritime activities, especially in harbours. These extreme phenomena drive complex hydrodynamic processes, whose understanding is paramount for proper infrastructure management, design and maintenance (Goda, 2010). In recent years, there have been several studies searching possible trends in wave conditions focusing on both mean and extreme values of significant wave height using a multi-source approach with model reanalysis information with high variability in the time coverage, satellite altimeter records covering the last 30 years and in situ buoy measured data since the 1980s decade but with sparse information and gaps in the time series (e.g. Dodet et al., 2020; Timmermans et al., 2020; Young & Ribal, 2019). These studies highlight a remarkable interannual, seasonal and spatial variability of wave conditions and suggest that the possible observed trends are not clearly associated with anthropogenic forcing (Hochet et al. 2021, 2023).

In the Baltic Sea, the particular bathymetry and geography of the basin intensify the seasonal and spatial fluctuations in wave conditions. No clear statistically significant trend in the sea state has been appreciated except a rising trend in significant wave height in winter season, linked with the reduction of sea ice coverage (Soomere, 2023; Tuomi et al., 2019).

'''COPERNICUS MARINE SERVICE KEY FINDINGS'''

The mean 99th percentiles shown in the area are from 3 to 4 meters and the standard deviation ranges from 0.2 m to 0.4 m.

Results for this year show a slight positive or negative anomaly in all the stations, from -0.24 m to +0.36 m, inside the margin of the standard deviation.

'''DOI (product):'''

https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00199